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Dealt 99 in SB, blinds 50/100, playing 9 handed about one hour in. Player UTG+1 open's, young guy who has been the most aggessive so far opens to 300, 2 people call, I call in SB, BB folds. Flop K96dd, I check, UTG+1 bets 700, MP calls, I raise to 2200, UTG+1 makes it 6200, MP folds. Stacks are at 29k Whats the play? Only reall reads I have on him is that he has riased about 5 of 10 hands pre and barrelled all of them without going to showdown yet. Can we call and see a turn even though there are alot of scary cards or can we just shove the flop? Hand has haunted me ever since it happened and even after talking it over with pretty much every decent player I know, opinion is still divided |
Aug. 4, 2011 3:12 a.m.
Thread Starter: WSOP Main Event Bust Hand
Date Joined: Aug. 4, 2011
Experience: Beginner
Age: 24
Posts: 2
Date Joined: May 18, 2011
Experience: Advanced
Age: 23
Posts: 100
tank jam. too many bad cards on turn that he will fold on if he has AK/AA, 66 doesn't fold and happy to get it in vs a range of sets/two pairs/combos and sometimes ak/aa.
Date Joined: Aug. 8, 2011
Experience: Beginner
Age: 44
Posts: 1
OK...so there is 10.4 k in the pot before you act on his reraise. You're not folding, so what's the difference between a call and a shove? You call and now there's 14.4k. Let's say you started the hand with 29k effective. You've now invested 6500 or 22% of your stack. You have 22.5k behind. Let's look at the possibilities here. If he has AA, he is about 10% to win at this point, so he needs 9:1 for a profitable call, but he will call much more than 10% of the time because he's going to think he has the best hand. Ditto for 66, except he's only about 5%. So shoving here would be good, and you'd win 85% against those hands (a little less if one of the aces or sixes is a diamond, although for 66, it's not a consideration). That's an argument for shoving right there, because neither of those hands is folding (except an advanced player with aces).
Against KK, YOU'RE now 5%, but you're going to get coolered off all your chips in this worst-case scenario anyway. Another argument for shoving. Could he have been raising K9 UTG+1? Maybe, and if so, you're still glad to get it all in.
Against 78 or a flush draw, you're a 2:1 favorite if both cards are seen, and 4:1 for each one. Unless you're up against the dreaded 78dd, in which case case, it's a flip.
If you're looking at a draw, you have to consider what gives him the worst math. Being that each card is 4:1 against him making his draw, and he had to call your 1500 raise AND put in 4k more for the raise, he put 5500 into a pot which was 4900 at that point, getting just over 2:1 to see ONE card. Now, if you put in the 4k more (again making the pot 14.4k) and raise your last 18.5k, he's getting just a little worse than 2:1 to call for both cards. It's a so-so decision, but not horrible (especially with 78dd).
So what if you flat him for 4k more to see the turn? Now the pot contains 14.4 to the turn. If the turn is a blank, you shove, and give him worse than 2:1 for a 4:1 proposition. Horrible math for him to call with the draw, and you might get even good players to call with AA or AK because you played it funky, and 66 was getting all the chips in anyway.
If the turn completes one of the draws (diamond, T, or 6, and to a lesser extent Q or J because he could be weird enough to play a gutshot this way), you would need to re-evaluate whether you think he has it, and go with that.
So, flat flop, shove safe turn would be your best line here.
